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\n\t\t These dynamics are now moving in the right direction.
\nBy\u00a0Wolf Richter\u00a0for\u00a0WOLF STREET.
\nOver the past 12 months through Q1, the total US housing stock grew by 1.41 million housing units \u2013 new construction minus demolitions \u2013 according to the Census Bureau today. With an average household size in the US of 2.3 people per housing unit, this addition over those 12 months provided homes for 3.2 million people.
\nBut in 2025, population growth faded amid a crackdown on illegal immigration. According to separate data from the Census Bureau, for the 12-month period through July 2026, the US population is expected to increase by only 757,000 people.
\nThe total housing stock reached 149.0 million housing unit. These are single-family homes, townhomes, duplexes, ADUs, etc., and multifamily homes (condos and apartments).<\/p>\n
Over the past five years, the total US housing stock grew by 7.4 million housing units \u2013 new construction minus demolitions. At average household size, this addition accommodates 17 million more people.
\nBut over the 5-year period through July 2026, the US population grew by 10.4 million people, including the two-decade-record surge in 2023 and 2024 (my analysis).
\nOver the past five years, the housing stock has grown steadily and substantially faster than the population.<\/p>\n
The vacant housing stock.
\nThere were 11.9 million \u201cyear-round vacant\u201d housing units in the US, or 8.0% of the total housing stock.
\nThe vacant shadow inventory: Of those 11.9 million year-round vacant units, 6.4 million vacant housing units were held off the market for a variety of reasons, a portion of which constitutes the vacant shadow-inventory that will show up on the for-sale or for-rent market at some point.
\nVacant housing units on the market for rent or for sale rose by 4.4% over the 12 months through Q1, to 4.7 million vacant housing units on the market, the most since two quarters in mid-2017, and before then the most since 2014, coming out of the housing bust.
\nOver the two-year period, they surged by 19.4%!\u00a0But this time, population growth has slowed to a crawl.<\/p>\n
With the for-sale market frozen and 2025 sales of existing homes down by about 25% from before the pandemic, and by 43% from the record in 2005, many wishful sellers of single-family homes and condos, after failing to sell their units at wishful prices, put their units on the rental market, hoping that this too shall pass.
\nThe number of these \u201caccidental landlords\u201d has surged, Zillow found by the for-sale listings that didn\u2019t sell, were pulled, and were then re-listed for-rent. For an overview of this situation, looking at for-rent and for-sale units combined eliminates this issue of vacant housing units shifting between categories:
\nVacant housing units on the market for rent \u2013 including by \u201caccidental landlords\u201d \u2013 rose by 6.1% year-over-year to 3.67 million in Q1, not seasonally adjusted, the most since 2014.
\nOver the two-year period, for-rent units surged by 15.4%!<\/p>\n
Vacant housing units on the market for sale jumped by 6.1% year-over-year to 1.0 million housing units, not seasonally adjusted. A sharp quarter-to-quarter decline in Q1 from Q4 is typical in these not-seasonally adjusted figures.
\nOver the two-year period, for-sale units surged by 37%!
\nAnd remember: a portion of what used to be vacant for-sale homes are now vacant for-rent homes that these \u201caccidental landlords\u201d shifted into the chart above:<\/p>\n
What the US housing market needs more than anything is lots of new housing units, more supply, and even more supply, of all kinds, amid slowing population growth. And these dynamics are now moving in the right direction.
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