DAILY NEWS

Stay Ahead, Stay Informed – Every Day

Advertisement
BUSINESS
Housing Unit Growth Far Outruns Population Growth: Vacant Units on the Market and the “Accidental Landlords”
jackminion 0



These dynamics are now moving in the right direction.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
Over the past 12 months through Q1, the total US housing stock grew by 1.41 million housing units – new construction minus demolitions – according to the Census Bureau today. With an average household size in the US of 2.3 people per housing unit, this addition over those 12 months provided homes for 3.2 million people.
But in 2025, population growth faded amid a crackdown on illegal immigration. According to separate data from the Census Bureau, for the 12-month period through July 2026, the US population is expected to increase by only 757,000 people.
The total housing stock reached 149.0 million housing unit. These are single-family homes, townhomes, duplexes, ADUs, etc., and multifamily homes (condos and apartments).

Over the past five years, the total US housing stock grew by 7.4 million housing units – new construction minus demolitions. At average household size, this addition accommodates 17 million more people.
But over the 5-year period through July 2026, the US population grew by 10.4 million people, including the two-decade-record surge in 2023 and 2024 (my analysis).
Over the past five years, the housing stock has grown steadily and substantially faster than the population.

The vacant housing stock.
There were 11.9 million “year-round vacant” housing units in the US, or 8.0% of the total housing stock.
The vacant shadow inventory: Of those 11.9 million year-round vacant units, 6.4 million vacant housing units were held off the market for a variety of reasons, a portion of which constitutes the vacant shadow-inventory that will show up on the for-sale or for-rent market at some point.
Vacant housing units on the market for rent or for sale rose by 4.4% over the 12 months through Q1, to 4.7 million vacant housing units on the market, the most since two quarters in mid-2017, and before then the most since 2014, coming out of the housing bust.
Over the two-year period, they surged by 19.4%! But this time, population growth has slowed to a crawl.

With the for-sale market frozen and 2025 sales of existing homes down by about 25% from before the pandemic, and by 43% from the record in 2005, many wishful sellers of single-family homes and condos, after failing to sell their units at wishful prices, put their units on the rental market, hoping that this too shall pass.
The number of these “accidental landlords” has surged, Zillow found by the for-sale listings that didn’t sell, were pulled, and were then re-listed for-rent. For an overview of this situation, looking at for-rent and for-sale units combined eliminates this issue of vacant housing units shifting between categories:
Vacant housing units on the market for rent – including by “accidental landlords” – rose by 6.1% year-over-year to 3.67 million in Q1, not seasonally adjusted, the most since 2014.
Over the two-year period, for-rent units surged by 15.4%!

Vacant housing units on the market for sale jumped by 6.1% year-over-year to 1.0 million housing units, not seasonally adjusted. A sharp quarter-to-quarter decline in Q1 from Q4 is typical in these not-seasonally adjusted figures.
Over the two-year period, for-sale units surged by 37%!
And remember: a portion of what used to be vacant for-sale homes are now vacant for-rent homes that these “accidental landlords” shifted into the chart above:

What the US housing market needs more than anything is lots of new housing units, more supply, and even more supply, of all kinds, amid slowing population growth. And these dynamics are now moving in the right direction.
Enjoy reading WOLF STREET and want to support it? You can donate. I appreciate it immensely. Click on the mug to find out how:



Source link

BUSINESS
This Fed Meeting Must Have Been a Hoot. Fed Holds Rates amid 4 Dissents, most since 1992: 1 Dovish, 3 Hawkish
jackminion 0



“Inflation is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices.” In part. And in part for other reasons.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
The FOMC voted today to leave the Fed’s five policy rates unchanged for the third meeting in a row, following three rate cuts in 2025 of 75 basis points combined, and three cuts of 100 basis points combined in 2024.
There were four dissents, the most since 1992: Miran dissented because he wanted a 25-basis point rate cut. Three others – Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan – dissented though they supported maintaining the target range at this meeting, but “did not support inclusion of an easing bias in the statement at this time.” They wanted a symmetrical statement, that indicated that the next move could be either a rate cut or a rate hike.
This concept that the next move could be either a cut or a hike was already discussed at the last meeting, as we know from the last press conference and meeting minutes. Now it made it into the statement.
Let there be dissents – they’re a breath of fresh air.
The FOMC left its five policy rates unchanged today:

Target range for the federal funds rate: 3.5%-3.75%.
Interest it pays the banks on reserve balances (IORB): 3.65%.
Interest it pays on overnight Reverse Repos (ON RRPs): 3.50%
Interest it charges on overnight Repos at its Standing Repo Facility (SRF): 3.75%.
Interest it charges banks to borrow at the “Discount Window” at 3.75%.

Major changes in the statement:
The statement was primarily worried about inflation, and less worried about the economy and labor market. That shift had taken place at the last meeting and was further clarified in this meeting:
New: “Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace.”.
Old: “Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace.”
New: “Job gains have remained low, on average, and the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months.”
Old: “Job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months.”
New: “Inflation is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices.”
Old: “Inflation remains somewhat elevated.”
New: “Developments in the Middle East are contributing to a high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook.”
Old: “Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain.”
This sentence was unchanged: “The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.”
And this sentence was unchanged: “The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.”
This was a no-dot-plot meeting – one of the four a year when the FOMC does not release a “Summary of Economic Projections,” which includes the “dot plot” that indicates how each FOMC member that day sees the development of future policy rates, inflation, GDP growth, and unemployment. The FOMC will release the next Summary of Economic Projections at the June meeting.
And here is Powell at the press conference: Regime Change: Powell, Chair of Mega-QE & “Ample Reserves Regime,” to Be Replaced by Warsh, who Wants a Smaller Balance Sheet

The whole statement:
“Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, on average, and the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices.
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Developments in the Middle East are contributing to a high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3‑1/2 to 3‑3/4 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.
In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.
Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Philip N. Jefferson; Anna Paulson; and Christopher J. Waller. Voting against this action were Stephen I. Miran, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting; and Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie K. Logan, who supported maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate but did not support inclusion of an easing bias in the statement at this time.”
 
Enjoy reading WOLF STREET and want to support it? You can donate. I appreciate it immensely. Click on the mug to find out how:



Source link

SPORTS
NBA roundup: Rockets, Pistons stay alive with Game 5 wins
jackminion 0



Apr 29, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Houston Rockets center Alperen Sengun (28) shoots against Los Angeles Lakers center Deandre Ayton (5) during the second half in game five of the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images Jabari Smith Jr. scored 22 points and Tari Eason added 18 as the Houston Rockets fought off elimination for a second consecutive game and crawled back into their first-round playoff series with a 99-93 road victory over the Los Angeles Lakers in Game 5 on Wednesday. Alperen Sengun scored 14 points with nine rebounds and eight assists while Amen Thompson added 15 points for the Rockets, who now trail 3-2 in the best-of-seven Western Conference series after falling into a 3-0 hole. No NBA team has rallied back from a 3-0 deficit to win a playoff series. The consecutive Rockets victories have come without star Kevin Durant (ankle), who has only played in Game 2. Austin Reaves scored 22 points off the bench in his return from an oblique injury and LeBron James added 25 points for the Lakers. Deandre Ayton scored 18 points and grabbed 17 rebounds for Los Angeles, which will get a third chance to clinch the series on Friday at Houston. The Lakers continue to be without star Luka Doncic (hamstring). Pistons 116, Magic 109 Cade Cunningham poured in a career-playoff-high 45 points as top-seeded Detroit stayed alive with a victory over visiting Orlando in Game 5 of their Eastern Conference first-round series. Tobias Harris supplied 23 points and eight assists for the Pistons, who trail 3-2 in the best-of-seven series. Ausar Thompson contributed six points, 15 rebounds, six assists and five steals. The Magic’s Paolo Banchero countered Cunningham with a career-playoff-best 45 points to go along with nine rebounds and seven assists. Anthony Black had 19 points for eighth-seeded Orlando. Franz Wagner sat out due to a calf strain. Cavaliers 125, Raptors 120 Dennis Schroder scored 11 of his 19 points in the fourth quarter and James Harden finished with 23 points, rallying Cleveland to a 3-2 lead over visiting Toronto in an Eastern Conference first-round playoff series. The Cavaliers, who trailed by 12 points on multiple occasions, have won all three of their home games so far. Evan Mobley had 23 points and nine rebounds, and Donovan Mitchell scored 19 for Cleveland. Harden also had nine rebounds, five assists and six turnovers in a series-high 39:45 minutes. RJ Barrett paced the Raptors with 25 points and Ja’Kobe Walter scored a career-playoff-high 20 points and made 6 of 14 3-point attempts. Raptors forward Brandon Ingram injured his right heel in the second quarter and did not return. –Field Level Media



Source link